Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 41.0¢
- Implied chance
- 41.0%
- Return if right
- 143.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 243.9 shares at 41.0¢ each.
YES wins: $243.90 back, a profit of $143.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $146.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 60.0¢
- Implied chance
- 60.0%
- Return if right
- 66.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 166.7 shares at 60.0¢ each.
NO wins: $166.67 back, a profit of $66.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $68.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 11:21 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ohio sheriff says Republicans, Democrats don't "have the guts" to fix U.S. immigration systemCBS News · 7h ago
- Senate Republicans block Democratic effort to end US war with IranThe Guardian · 1d ago
- Democrats hit Republicans with do-nothing charges after abrupt House adjournmentThe Hill · 1d ago
- House Democrat 'far less worried' about democratic socialists than Republicans 'complicit' with TrumpThe Hill · 1d ago
- Republicans outspend Democrats on ads in key Senate racesCBS News · 2d ago
- Democratic ETF Outperforms Republican RivalYahoo Finance · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republican…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.