Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.4¢
- Implied chance
- 7.4%
- Return if right
- 1251.4%
- Spread cost
- 36%
If you put in $100
You get 1351.4 shares at 7.4¢ each.
YES wins: $1351.35 back, a profit of $1251.35. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $689.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $1940.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.6¢
- Implied chance
- 97.6%
- Return if right
- 2.5%
- Spread cost
- 52%
If you put in $100
You get 102.5 shares at 97.6¢ each.
NO wins: $102.46 back, a profit of $2.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 03:24 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Republican, Democratic strategists on controversial campaign funding ahead of midtermsCBS News · 15m ago
- Congressional Republicans have proven themselves unworthy to governThe Hill · 55m ago
- JD Vance and Kamala Harris battle to define outsider personas for 2028The Hill · 2h ago
- Max Miller locked in as Republican nominee after Ohio ballot deadline passes without withdrawalFox News · 22h ago
- Former DNC fundraiser says major donors won’t back Kamala Harris again as party faces divisionsFox News · 1d ago
- Max Miller, Republican Accused of Abuse, Won’t Drop Out, Spokeswoman SaysThe New York Times · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in state…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Other outcomes in How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
- Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- Will Republicans win 6 or more Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- Will Republicans win 5 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- Will Republicans win 4 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?