Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Q: Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Prediction markets currently price this at 52%. A YES share costs 52.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 92.3% over 2.8mo.

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?$5k liquidity$8k volumecloses 2.8mo

SenateMidtermsPoliticsdepec us electionsGovernor Races

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 52.0¢
Implied chance: 52.0%
Return if right: 92.3%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.

YES wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $81.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $173.97.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 79.0¢
Implied chance: 79.0%
Return if right: 26.6%
Spread cost: 54%

If you put in $100

You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.

NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $57.48.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 02:17 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

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How this market resolves

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.