Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?

Q: Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?

Prediction markets currently price this at 25%. A YES share costs 24.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 304.9% over 10.7mo.

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?$2k liquidity$329 volumecloses 10.7mo

FinanceIPOchatgptBig TechIPOssam altman

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 24.7¢
Implied chance: 24.7%
Return if right: 304.9%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 404.9 shares at 24.7¢ each.

YES wins: $404.86 back, a profit of $304.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $348.43.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 80.1¢
Implied chance: 80.1%
Return if right: 24.8%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 124.8 shares at 80.1¢ each.

NO wins: $124.84 back, a profit of $24.84. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $28.70.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 06:50 PM2 further outcomes not shown

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.