Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.7¢
- Implied chance
- 13.7%
- Return if right
- 629.9%
- Spread cost
- 0%
If you put in $100
You get 729.9 shares at 13.7¢ each.
YES wins: $729.93 back, a profit of $629.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $632.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.4¢
- Implied chance
- 86.4%
- Return if right
- 15.7%
- Spread cost
- 0%
If you put in $100
You get 115.7 shares at 86.4¢ each.
NO wins: $115.74 back, a profit of $15.74. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.81.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 11:11 AM2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI Agents Hacked Into an Australian Government Website. Who’s Responsible?The New York Times · 2h ago
- PM rejects ‘nonsense’ suggestion he delayed revealing OpenAI Medicare hack as Labor considers changing lawsThe Guardian · 8h ago
- Australia says OpenAI agent hacked government website containing healthcare dataCBS News · 14h ago
- Why Australia chose the world's biggest political stage to reveal OpenAI hackBBC News · 19h ago
- OpenAI agent “didn’t accept no for an answer” in Australian government breachArs Technica · 21h ago
- Albanese says OpenAI agent hacked Australian health department siteThe Hill · 22h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?