Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.0¢
- Implied chance
- 7.0%
- Return if right
- 1328.6%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $109.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Why Australia chose the world's biggest political stage to reveal OpenAI hackBBC News · 3h ago
- OpenAI agent “didn’t accept no for an answer” in Australian government breachArs Technica · 5h ago
- Albanese says OpenAI agent hacked Australian health department siteThe Hill · 7h ago
- Why did an OpenAI system hack Australia's health system - and can it be stopped in the future?BBC News · 7h ago
- OpenAI model went rogue and hacked Australia's healthcare systemCBS News · 8h ago
- Australia's prime minister slams OpenAI after its agent hacked government websiteCBS News · 8h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by Octobe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.