Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 23.0¢
- Implied chance
- 23.0%
- Return if right
- 334.8%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.
YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 78.0¢
- Implied chance
- 78.0%
- Return if right
- 28.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 128.2 shares at 78.0¢ each.
NO wins: $128.21 back, a profit of $28.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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- OpenAI and Anthropic Are Quietly Rehearsing for the Day After an AI CatastropheDecrypt · 2d ago
- ‘Pure insanity’: Mathematicians will need years to make sense of OpenAI’s latest dropThe Verge · 2d ago
- OpenAI’s $70B AI Boom, Goldman Leads Wall Street Trading SurgeBloomberg · 2d ago
- OpenAI defends firing AI safety researchers over "breach of trust"CBS News · 2d ago
- Tech Stocks Rebound After OpenAI Revenue ScareBloomberg · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by Decemb…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.