Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 82.0¢
- Implied chance
- 82.0%
- Return if right
- 22.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.
YES wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 19.0¢
- Implied chance
- 19.0%
- Return if right
- 426.3%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.
NO wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 05:21 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- How did an OpenAI agent hack into Australian government website?France 24 · 47m ago
- Australia says rogue OpenAI model hacked into its healthcare systemCBS News · 59m ago
- Australia says OpenAI agent hacked government site before Altman warningCointelegraph · 2h ago
- OpenAI Model Hacks Australian Government Data PortalBloomberg · 4h ago
- OpenAI agents breached Australian portal, attempted other hacks in routine data collection.Axios · 5h ago
- Australia Investigates OpenAI Hack on Public Health Care SiteThe New York Times · 5h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by De…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.