Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 51.0¢
- Implied chance
- 51.0%
- Return if right
- 96.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.
YES wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 50.0¢
- Implied chance
- 50.0%
- Return if right
- 100.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.
NO wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 21, 04:34 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI agent hacked Australia government portal: PM AlbaneseDeutsche Welle · 40m ago
- Australia Says OpenAI ‘Infiltrated’ Public Health Care PortalThe New York Times · 3h ago
- Australia says OpenAI agent hacked Medicare portalAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- OpenAI, Anthropic CEOs call for global AI regulation at UNAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- OpenAI, Anthropic CEOs at UN call for global AI cooperation: 'We are at a crossroads'ABC News · 7h ago
- OpenAI agent 'infiltrated' Australian government website, PM saysBBC Business · 7h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by De…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.