Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.9¢
- Implied chance
- 1.9%
- Return if right
- 5163.2%
- Spread cost
- 35%
If you put in $100
You get 5263.2 shares at 1.9¢ each.
YES wins: $5263.16 back, a profit of $5163.16. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2736.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $7900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.4¢
- Implied chance
- 99.4%
- Return if right
- 0.6%
- Spread cost
- 52%
If you put in $100
You get 100.6 shares at 99.4¢ each.
NO wins: $100.60 back, a profit of $0.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.27.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 25, 07:36 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel seizes UN facility in East Jerusalem - and vows to close it downSky News · 2h ago
- Most US Democrats in early 2028 primary states oppose aid to Israel: PollAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- One year since Gaza journalist killed by IsraelAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- No, the Democratic Party is not shifting on IsraelAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- ‘Our Loves,’ Avi Nesher’s Frontrunner for Israel’s Oscar Entry, Boarded by Gersh and Other Angle Pictures (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 5h ago
- How Israel’s Netanyahu weaponises religion in his war rhetoricAl Jazeera · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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