Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.1¢
- Implied chance
- 4.1%
- Return if right
- 2339.0%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 2439.0 shares at 4.1¢ each.
YES wins: $2439.02 back, a profit of $2339.02. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $502.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $2841.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.3¢
- Implied chance
- 97.3%
- Return if right
- 2.8%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 102.8 shares at 97.3¢ each.
NO wins: $102.77 back, a profit of $2.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Bybit Sues North Korea Over $1.5B Hack, Wins Order Freezing AssetsDecrypt · 10h ago
- North Korea’s Kimsuky integrates AI into cyberattacks targeting crypto and financeThe Block · 11h ago
- North Korea’s hackers using AI for attacks, cybersecurity firm saysAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- North Korea may deploy up to 50,000 troops to Russia, Zelensky claimsFrance 24 · 1d ago
- How Leveraged ETFs Turned South Korea’s Stock Market Into a Casino and Why the U.S. Might Be NextYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- South Korea FA apologises over ‘sexual services’ allegationsAl Jazeera · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.