Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.9¢
- Implied chance
- 2.9%
- Return if right
- 3348.3%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.
YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1202.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $4551.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.6¢
- Implied chance
- 98.6%
- Return if right
- 1.4%
- Spread cost
- 35%
If you put in $100
You get 101.4 shares at 98.6¢ each.
NO wins: $101.42 back, a profit of $1.42. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- South Korea’s leader is seeking a new approach to North Korea.The New York Times · 2d ago
- South Korea says US-North Korea talks possible, rules out Hormuz deploymentAl Jazeera · 7d ago
- U.S., South Korea and Japan to hold drill as North Korea ramps up pressure on U.S.NPR · 28d ago
- North Korea fires ballistic missiles as US-South Korea drills near endAl Jazeera · 1mo ago
- Trump says North Korea has 57 nuclear warheads. South Korea says it could be up to 120.CBS News · 1mo ago
- North Korea fires 10 missiles day after Trump curtails South Korea joint drillsThe Guardian · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.