Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 37.3¢
- Implied chance
- 37.3%
- Return if right
- 168.1%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 268.1 shares at 37.3¢ each.
YES wins: $268.10 back, a profit of $168.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $174.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 64.5¢
- Implied chance
- 64.5%
- Return if right
- 55.0%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 155.0 shares at 64.5¢ each.
NO wins: $155.04 back, a profit of $55.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $57.23.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.