Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $176.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $1076.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Why Netanyahu rejected a Trump-backed Gaza peace planCBS News · 50m ago
- Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of US deal for Gaza is a risky gambleThe Guardian · 55m ago
- Netanyahu Walks Tightrope on Trump’s Gaza Disarmament DealThe New York Times · 3h ago
- Netanyahu Walks Tightrope on Trump’s Gaza Disarmament DealThe New York Times · 3h ago
- Netanyahu says no Gaza withdrawal until Hamas disarmsFrance 24 · 4h ago
- Netanyahu's rejection of Trump's 15-point Gaza plan unlikely to be final wordBBC News · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from the then-serving President of Israel for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.