Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $222.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.73 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Netanyahu rejects US-backed 15-point Gaza peace plan | First ThingThe Guardian · 59m ago
- Netanyahu eyes election base as friction with Trump grows over Gaza dealFrance 24 · 1h ago
- Netanyahu Rejects Hamas Disarmament ProposalBloomberg · 5h ago
- Burnham to start national tour | Netanyahu rejects Trump's Board of Peace planSky News · 6h ago
- Netanyahu Rejects US-Backed Hamas Disarmament ProposalBloomberg · 6h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from the then-serving President of Israel for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.