Will Nermin Nikšić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Q: Will Nermin Nikšić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Prediction markets currently price this at 6%. A YES share costs 5.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1718.2% over 1.9y.

Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?$10k liquidity$33k volumecloses 1.9y

BosniaPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsBosnia and Herzegovina

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.5¢
Implied chance: 5.5%
Return if right: 1718.2%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 1818.2 shares at 5.5¢ each.

YES wins: $1818.18 back, a profit of $1718.18. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $848.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $2566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 48%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.90.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 11:05 AM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chairman of the Council of Ministers takes office by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.