Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Q: Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2757.1% over 2.0y.

Democratic VP Nominee 2028$41k liquidity$3k volumecloses 2.0y

PoliticsPresidentUS ElectionElectionsUnited StatesPrimaries

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.5¢
Implied chance: 3.5%
Return if right: 2757.1%
Spread cost: 26%

If you put in $100

You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.

YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $989.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $3746.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.3¢
Implied chance: 98.3%
Return if right: 1.7%
Spread cost: 35%

If you put in $100

You get 101.7 shares at 98.3¢ each.

NO wins: $101.73 back, a profit of $1.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 07:17 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Pro-science group urges Mark Kelly to run for president in 2028Axios · 22h ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nom…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.