Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 19.0¢
- Implied chance
- 19.0%
- Return if right
- 426.3%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.
YES wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $29.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $455.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 83.0¢
- Implied chance
- 83.0%
- Return if right
- 20.5%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 120.5 shares at 83.0¢ each.
NO wins: $120.48 back, a profit of $20.48. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $21.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ICC body urges Chad and Venezuela to reverse course on withdrawalAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- US-backed Venezuela political transition talks begin without Nobel laureate MachadoFrance 24 · 4d ago
- US-backed Venezuela political transition talks begin without Nobel laureate MachadoFrance 24 · 4d ago
- Venezuela’s Response to Earthquakes Exposes Government’s ShortcomingsThe New York Times · 4d ago
- Venezuela’s Oil Production Grows at a Crucial Time Despite ChallengesYahoo Finance · 5d ago
- Demolition complicates the search for bodies after Venezuela’s earthquakesAl Jazeera · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.