Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $135.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 59.0¢
- Implied chance
- 59.0%
- Return if right
- 69.5%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 169.5 shares at 59.0¢ each.
NO wins: $169.49 back, a profit of $69.49. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $73.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- To the victor belong Venezuela’s spoils: Delcy Rodriguez’s UNGA about-faceAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Venezuela's acting leader promises elections at the 'right moment'NPR · 1d ago
- Venezuela’s Rodriguez pledges elections, path forward in UNGA speechAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez promises elections at UN, gives no dateAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Interim Leader of Venezuela Promises Elections and ‘Orderly Legal Transition’The New York Times · 1d ago
- After Warm Meeting With Trump, Venezuela’s Leader Is Set to Address U.N.The New York Times · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.