Will Marcos do Val win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $424.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 49%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Marcos do Val8.0%
- Renato Casagrande79.5%
- Rose de Freitas3.5%
- Rodney Miranda12.0%
- Sergio Meneguelli5.0%
- Professor Fabian7.5%
Latest: Aug 18, 05:22 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Marcos do Val win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito S…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
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