Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

Q: Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

Prediction markets currently price this at 33%. A YES share costs 33.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 203.0% over 2.0y.

Republican VP Nominee 2028$16k liquidity$7k volumecloses 2.0y

US ElectionUnited StatesPoliticsgopvice presidentElections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 33.0¢
Implied chance: 33.0%
Return if right: 203.0%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.

YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $207.69.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 68.0¢
Implied chance: 68.0%
Return if right: 47.1%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.

NO wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $48.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 10:10 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Marco Rubio says millions of American jobs were destroyed for cheap goods — but Trump’s fix could crash your retirementYahoo Finance · 4d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential no…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.