Will Madison Keys advance to the Semifinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 US Open?

Q: Will Madison Keys advance to the Semifinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 US Open?

Prediction markets currently price this at 11%. A YES share costs 11.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 809.1% over 16d.

US Open 2026: To Reach Semifinals (Women's Singles)$23k liquidity$21 volumecloses 16d

WTASportsTennisUS Open

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 11.0¢
Implied chance: 11.0%
Return if right: 809.1%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.

YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $852.38.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 90.0¢
Implied chance: 90.0%
Return if right: 11.1%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.

NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.73.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 25, 11:44 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Semifinals at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Semifinals at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Semifinals have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and WTA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.