Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Goiás?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.1¢
- Implied chance
- 2.1%
- Return if right
- 4661.9%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 4761.9 shares at 2.1¢ each.
YES wins: $4761.90 back, a profit of $4661.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4329.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $8990.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 91%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Braz…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).