Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Goiás?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 31%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
YES wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 1.9¢
- Implied chance
- 1.9%
- Return if right
- 5163.2%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 5263.2 shares at 1.9¢ each.
NO wins: $5263.16 back, a profit of $5163.16. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1633.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $6796.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Thousands protest Flavio Bolsonaro, fearing far-right return in BrazilFrance 24 · 2h ago
- Why Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed the polls in Brazil’s electionAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Brazil election: Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of populist Jair Bolsonaro, takes an early lead over rival Lula da Silva with over 30% of votes countedDeutsche Welle · 3d ago
- Brazil heads to the polls for high-stakes election between Lula and Flavio BolsonaroFrance 24 · 3d ago
- Polls close in Brazil's high-stakes election pitting Lula against Flavio BolsonaroFrance 24 · 4d ago
- Brazil: A portrait of Flavio BolsonaroFrance 24 · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).