Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 31.9¢
- Implied chance
- 31.9%
- Return if right
- 213.5%
- Spread cost
- 58%
If you put in $100
You get 313.5 shares at 31.9¢ each.
YES wins: $313.48 back, a profit of $213.48. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $292.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 94%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $18.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Lula16.5%
- Rui Costa Pimenta7.5%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi7.5%
- Clariana Barao13.0%
- Pablo Marçal23.5%
- Renan Santos23.5%
Latest: Aug 17, 03:23 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Lula and Bolsonaro’s son launch rival bids for Brazil presidencyAl Jazeera · 1h ago
- Brazil: Lula, Bolsonaro return to strongholds to launch runs for presidentAl Jazeera · 19h ago
- Brazil’s Lula launches historic fourth term bid – but son of jailed Bolsonaro stands in his wayThe Guardian · 21h ago
- Brazil election: Lula and the new face of Bolsonaro's rightFrance 24 · 1d ago
- Nu Holdings Banks More Than Half the Adults in BrazilYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- Lula holds slim lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil electionAl Jazeera · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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