Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?

Q: Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?

Prediction markets currently price this at 87%. A YES share costs 87.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 14.9% over 1.6mo.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás$30 liquidity$213 volumecloses 1.6mo

BrazilPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 87.0¢
Implied chance: 87.0%
Return if right: 14.9%
Spread cost: 59%

If you put in $100

You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.

YES wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $21.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $36.05.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 40.0¢
Implied chance: 40.0%
Return if right: 150.0%
Spread cost: 46%

If you put in $100

You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.

NO wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $127.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $277.36.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 17, 03:28 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).