Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Q: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 9900.0% over 1.8mo.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place$33k liquidity$11k volumecloses 1.8mo

BrazilWorldPoliticsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.0¢
Implied chance: 1.0%
Return if right: 9900.0%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 10000.0 shares at 1.0¢ each.

YES wins: $10000.00 back, a profit of $9900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $526.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $10426.32.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.1¢
Implied chance: 99.1%
Return if right: 0.9%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 100.9 shares at 99.1¢ each.

NO wins: $100.91 back, a profit of $0.91. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 12:36 PM4 further outcomes not shown

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How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).