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Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place$30k liquidity$12k volumecloses 9.2mo
BrazilWorldPoliticsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
0.1¢
Implied chance
0.1%
Return if right
99900.0%
Spread cost
n/a

If you put in $100

You get 100000.0 shares at 0.1¢ each.

YES wins: $100000.00 back, a profit of $99900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H6H1D1W1MALL
0%25%50%75%100%0%47%40%14%Sep 15Sep 24

Latest: Sep 24, 08:10 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first roun…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Other outcomes in Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

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