Will Lei Paasi win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 19.7¢
- Implied chance
- 19.7%
- Return if right
- 407.6%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 507.6 shares at 19.7¢ each.
YES wins: $507.61 back, a profit of $407.61. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $107.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $515.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 87.2¢
- Implied chance
- 87.2%
- Return if right
- 14.7%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 114.7 shares at 87.2¢ each.
NO wins: $114.68 back, a profit of $14.68. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.40.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Lei Paasi13.4%
- Alvin Lafu Sika17.0%
- Samiuela Vea20.0%
- 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila11.5%
- Sione Harvard Tupouniua10.3%
- Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi15.2%
Latest: Sep 24, 10:11 AM3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lei Paasi win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Other outcomes in Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
- Will Alvin Lafu Sika win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will 'Olioni Manoa win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Samiuela Vea win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Mounu Uaisele win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Sione Harvard Tupouniua win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?