Will Alvin Lafu Sika win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.0¢
- Implied chance
- 13.0%
- Return if right
- 669.2%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.
YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $183.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $852.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Alvin Lafu Sika9.5%
- Samiuela Vea28.5%
- Lei Paasi15.2%
- 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila12.7%
- Sione Harvard Tupouniua10.4%
- Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi15.6%
Latest: Sep 24, 12:42 AM3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Other outcomes in Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
- Will Lei Paasi win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will 'Olioni Manoa win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Samiuela Vea win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Mounu Uaisele win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will Sione Harvard Tupouniua win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
- Will 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?