Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Q: Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Prediction markets currently price this at 89%. A YES share costs 89.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12.4% over 1.8mo.

Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026$7k liquidity$2k volumecloses 1.8mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 12.0¢
Implied chance: 12.0%
Return if right: 733.3%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.

NO wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 1, 10:15 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lamine Yamal officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.