Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2028?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
YES wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $43.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 31.0¢
- Implied chance
- 31.0%
- Return if right
- 222.6%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 322.6 shares at 31.0¢ each.
NO wins: $322.58 back, a profit of $222.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $227.87.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Josh Shapiro69.5%
- Rahm Emanuel68.5%
- Ron DeSantis66.0%
- Andrew Yang66.5%
- Cory Booker59.5%
- J.B. Pritzker62.5%
Latest: Oct 4, 03:13 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ballots reach remote Indigenous Brazilians ahead of presidential electionAl Jazeera · 16m ago
- Brazil's 2026 presidential election is kicking off with polls showing Lula and Bolsonaro nearly tied.Deutsche Welle · 2h ago
- What to know about Brazil’s 2026 presidential electionAl Jazeera · 13h ago
- How the Banco Master scandal injected chaos into Brazil’s presidential raceAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Brazil’s Lula gears up for ‘last dance’ with run for fourth presidential termFrance 24 · 1d ago
- Brazil: Who is presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro?France 24 · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2028?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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