Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028?

Q: Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028?

Prediction markets currently price this at 13%. A YES share costs 13.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 669.2% over 1.3y.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?$9k liquidity$4k volumecloses 1.3y

PoliticsElectionsPresidentCelebrities

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 13.0¢
Implied chance: 13.0%
Return if right: 669.2%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.

YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $64.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $733.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.28 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.64.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 08:09 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.