Will John Roggeveen win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.8¢
- Implied chance
- 5.8%
- Return if right
- 1624.1%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 1724.1 shares at 5.8¢ each.
YES wins: $1724.14 back, a profit of $1624.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $685.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $2309.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.5¢
- Implied chance
- 97.5%
- Return if right
- 2.6%
- Spread cost
- 41%
If you put in $100
You get 102.6 shares at 97.5¢ each.
NO wins: $102.56 back, a profit of $2.56. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 22, 04:55 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will John Roggeveen win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).