Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Q: Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 22%. A YES share costs 21.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 360.8% over 2.2y.

Presidential Election Winner 2028$449k liquidity$15.2M volumecloses 2.2y

PresidentUnited StatesUS ElectionElectionsPoliticsWorld Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 21.7¢
Implied chance: 21.7%
Return if right: 360.8%
Spread cost: 0%

If you put in $100

You get 460.8 shares at 21.7¢ each.

YES wins: $460.83 back, a profit of $360.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $361.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 78.4¢
Implied chance: 78.4%
Return if right: 27.6%
Spread cost: 0%

If you put in $100

You get 127.6 shares at 78.4¢ each.

NO wins: $127.55 back, a profit of $27.55. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $27.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 09:39 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.