Will Israel make Eric Adams a citizen?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 25.0¢
- Implied chance
- 25.0%
- Return if right
- 300.0%
- Spread cost
- 49%
If you put in $100
You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.
YES wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $289.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 75%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- What’s driven the defence deal between Israel and Greece?Al Jazeera · 2h ago
- Israel’s multiple wars see finance, defence ministries clash over spendingAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- Israel warns it will retaliate if UK imposes sanctionsBBC Politics · 3h ago
- Ed Miliband promises ‘comprehensive reset’ of UK policy toward IsraelThe Guardian · 4h ago
- Jerusalem schools strike after Israel enforces curriculum and bans teachersAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Israel captures top Hamas commander in Gaza strike, defense minister saysFox News · 8h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Israel make Eric Adams a citizen?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Eric Adams indicating intent to seek citizenship from the listed country will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from the listed country or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only the listed country's actually making Eric Adams a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of the listed country or Eric Adams. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.