Will China make Eric Adams a citizen?

Q: Will China make Eric Adams a citizen?

Prediction markets currently price this at 16%. A YES share costs 16.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 525.0% over 4.0mo.

Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?$666 liquidity$22 volumecloses 4.0mo

PoliticsEric AdamsnycAlbaniaWorldNew York

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 16.0¢
Implied chance: 16.0%
Return if right: 525.0%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.

YES wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $427.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.0¢
Implied chance: 97.0%
Return if right: 3.1%
Spread cost: 71%

If you put in $100

You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.

NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 30, 05:55 AM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Eric Adams battles tense crowd as Wisconsin audience erupts over AI data center proposalFox News · 26d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will China make Eric Adams a citizen?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Eric Adams indicating intent to seek citizenship from the listed country will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from the listed country or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only the listed country's actually making Eric Adams a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of the listed country or Eric Adams. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.