Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 31, 2026?

• Yemeni military says Houthi attack on Mocha kills 7, wounds 30France 24 · 7h ago
• Middle East live: Houthis launch deadly strike on port city of Mocha in YemenFrance 24 · 11h ago
• Houthis launch fresh ballistic missile and drone attacks on al-Makha portAl Jazeera · 15h ago
• New Houthi missile and drone attacks kill seven in Yemen’s al-MakhaAl Jazeera · 16h ago
• Iran-aligned Houthis claim they attacked oil refinery in Saudi ArabiaThe Guardian · 1d ago
• Yemeni army warns Houthis after attacks heighten escalation riskAl Jazeera · 1d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.