Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?

Q: Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 4.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2400.0% over 11d.

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?$15k liquidity$3k volumecloses 11d

OilIranYemenHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle East

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.0¢
Implied chance: 4.0%
Return if right: 2400.0%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.

YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $357.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $2757.14.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.0¢
Implied chance: 97.0%
Return if right: 3.1%
Spread cost: 15%

If you put in $100

You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.

NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:05 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.