Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 73.0¢
- Implied chance
- 73.0%
- Return if right
- 37.0%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 137.0 shares at 73.0¢ each.
YES wins: $136.99 back, a profit of $36.99. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $63.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 51.0¢
- Implied chance
- 51.0%
- Return if right
- 96.1%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.
NO wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $60.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $156.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Friedrich Merz61.0%
- António Costa88.5%
- Jared Kushner84.5%
- Keith Kellogg80.0%
- Steve Witkoff82.0%
- Mark Rutte67.5%
Latest: Aug 11, 10:03 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Zelenskyy says Russia using North Korean missiles in UkraineCBS News · 19m ago
- Russia using North Korean missiles to strike Ukraine, Zelensky saysBBC News · 24m ago
- Ukraine’s 40-day campaign has not brought the war closer to an endAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine used North Korean missiles, claims Zelenskyy – Europe liveThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Russian attacks kill six in Ukraine’s ZaporizhzhiaAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- Inside a secret launch site for Ukraine’s deep-strike dronesAl Jazeera · 11h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
- Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
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- Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
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- Will Donald Tusk visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?