Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 4.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1940.8% over 3.2mo.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?$8k liquidity$109k volumecloses 3.2mo

UkraineGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.9¢
Implied chance: 4.9%
Return if right: 1940.8%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.

YES wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $284.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $2225.58.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.3¢
Implied chance: 96.3%
Return if right: 3.8%
Spread cost: 14%

If you put in $100

You get 103.8 shares at 96.3¢ each.

NO wins: $103.84 back, a profit of $3.84. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.49.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 25, 06:05 PM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.