Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Q: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 27%. A YES share costs 27.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 266.3% over 1.8mo.

Brazil Presidential Election$186k liquidity$8.1M volumecloses 1.8mo

PoliticsMacro Election 2Main ElectionBrazilGlobal ElectionsWorld Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 27.3¢
Implied chance: 27.3%
Return if right: 266.3%
Spread cost: 0%

If you put in $100

You get 366.3 shares at 27.3¢ each.

YES wins: $366.30 back, a profit of $266.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $266.97.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 72.8¢
Implied chance: 72.8%
Return if right: 37.4%
Spread cost: 0%

If you put in $100

You get 137.4 shares at 72.8¢ each.

NO wins: $137.36 back, a profit of $37.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $37.46.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 11:27 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).