Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Brazil Presidential Election$229k liquidity$7.0M volumecloses 1.8mo
PoliticsMacro Election 2Main ElectionBrazilGlobal ElectionsWorld Elections
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
0.2¢
Implied chance
0.2%
Return if right
49900.0%
Spread cost
n/a

If you put in $100

You get 50000.0 shares at 0.2¢ each.

YES wins: $50000.00 back, a profit of $49900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%0%64%Aug 3Aug 10

Latest: Aug 10, 07:12 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Other outcomes in Brazil Presidential Election

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