Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.1¢
- Implied chance
- 2.1%
- Return if right
- 4661.9%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 4761.9 shares at 2.1¢ each.
YES wins: $4761.90 back, a profit of $4661.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1689.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $6351.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 36%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump reportedly used catering truck to sneak off Air Force One amid Iranian threatsABC News · 5h ago
- Iran war live: Trump claims Hormuz Strait open, seeks Iranian compensationAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Iranian protesters feel Trump didn't follow through on promises, New York Times reportsCBS News · 14h ago
- Iranian hackers attacked our water systems. Here are 5 things our leaders need to do nowFox News · 1d ago
- Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Iranian leaders demand U.S. pay for war damage or will keep Strait of Hormuz closedCBS News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be unde…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.