Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.1¢
- Implied chance
- 0.1%
- Return if right
- 99900.0%
- Spread cost
- n/a
If you put in $100
You get 100000.0 shares at 0.1¢ each.
YES wins: $100000.00 back, a profit of $99900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iranian president says country wants deal with US made before midtermsThe Hill · 4h ago
- Iranian American Group Files Suit Alleging Iran War Is UnconstitutionalThe New York Times · 6h ago
- Iranian-American group sues Trump over warAl Jazeera · 6h ago
- Senate Republican: Iranian leaders 'part of a colony of reptiles' that also includes China, Russia, North KoreaThe Hill · 10h ago
- Family of Iranian twins sentenced to death and decades in jail ask UN for helpThe Guardian · 11h ago
- Did we just hear the Iranian regime's last speech at the UN?The Hill · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be unde…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.