Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.3¢
- Implied chance
- 0.3%
- Return if right
- 33233.3%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.
YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:38 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Lionel Messi returns to Argentina after father Jorge’s deathAl Jazeera · 2d ago
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- Jorge Messi, father of Argentina great Lionel Messi, dies at 68CBS News · 2d ago
- Messi will decide when he retires, says Argentina FA chiefAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- Argentina and Mexico join Africa in backing FIFA’s Infantino: What to knowAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- Argentina: Thousands protest private property legislationFrance 24 · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential elect…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
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