Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Q: Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 8990.9% over 3.2mo.

Next leader out of power before 2027?$29k liquidity$19k volumecloses 3.2mo

StarmerPoliticsGeopoliticsUK Labour Leadership

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.1¢
Implied chance: 1.1%
Return if right: 8990.9%
Spread cost: 14%

If you put in $100

You get 9090.9 shares at 1.1¢ each.

YES wins: $9090.91 back, a profit of $8990.91. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1435.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $10426.32.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.2¢
Implied chance: 99.2%
Return if right: 0.8%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 100.8 shares at 99.2¢ each.

NO wins: $100.81 back, a profit of $0.81. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 11:21 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.