Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 38.0¢
- Implied chance
- 38.0%
- Return if right
- 163.2%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 263.2 shares at 38.0¢ each.
YES wins: $263.16 back, a profit of $163.16. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $166.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 63.0¢
- Implied chance
- 63.0%
- Return if right
- 58.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 158.7 shares at 63.0¢ each.
NO wins: $158.73 back, a profit of $58.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.27 of that profit. Without it you would make $60.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Netanyahu - Israel PM29.5%
- Díaz-Canel - Cuba President0.7%
- Erdoğan - Türkiye President2.0%
- Xi - General Secretary of the CCP0.8%
Latest: Sep 25, 01:17 AM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Benjamin Netanyahu attacks Israel’s enemies and allies in UN speechAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- REPLAY: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the UNGAFrance 24 · 10h ago
- Hannah Einbinder and Susan Sarandon Detained by Police While Protesting Benjamin Netanyahu’s Speech at the U.N.Variety · 10h ago
- Benjamin Netanyahu to deliver defiant UN speech while facing protests and political isolationThe Guardian · 21h ago
- Benjamin Netanyahu Calls to ‘Revoke the Citizenship’ of ‘Anyone Who Slanders IDF Soldiers’ Following ‘NAZA’ Documentary PremiereVariety · 8d ago
- Benjamin Netanyahu has overseen a genocide: In his telling, he’s a victimAl Jazeera · 15d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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