Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 95.6¢
- Implied chance
- 95.6%
- Return if right
- 4.6%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 104.6 shares at 95.6¢ each.
YES wins: $104.60 back, a profit of $4.60. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.27 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 4.9¢
- Implied chance
- 4.9%
- Return if right
- 1940.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.
NO wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $109.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $2050.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 09:08 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- SpaceX Stock Has Plunged 34%. Elon Musk's "Secret Master Plan" Points to What Could Come Next.Yahoo Finance · 6h ago
- Elon Musk Says This Is One of the Biggest Challenges for Public CompaniesYahoo Finance · 9h ago
- Elon Musk’s ambitious AI plans for SpaceX should be taken seriously, thanks to Microsoft, these analysts sayMarketWatch · 13h ago
- Kevin O'Leary Sat Out SpaceX's IPO— Now He's Plotting His Entry as Elon Musk's Empire Takes Shape: 'As the Stock Settles... I'll Be Watching Closely...'Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Elon Musk's Boring Company Is Raising Money at a $20 Billion Valuation. Here's How His Empire Outside Tesla Is Growing.Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- SpaceX Has Reached the Moon, Just Not How Elon Musk Might Have Planned ItYahoo Finance · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
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