Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Q: Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 98%. A YES share costs 97.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2.5% over 3.3mo.

Richest person on December 31, 2026?$18k liquidity$197k volumecloses 3.3mo

BusinessBig TechElon MuskCultureRecurring

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 97.6¢
Implied chance: 97.6%
Return if right: 2.5%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 102.5 shares at 97.6¢ each.

YES wins: $102.46 back, a profit of $2.46. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 3.7¢
Implied chance: 3.7%
Return if right: 2602.7%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 2702.7 shares at 3.7¢ each.

NO wins: $2702.70 back, a profit of $2602.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $575.99 of that profit. Without it you would make $3178.69.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Elon Musk97.0%

Latest: Sep 24, 06:22 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.